Copper is the third most-used metal in the world, and experts believe demand for this important commodity is set to rise in the coming years. At the same time, the supply situation is expected to tighten up.
In Q2 2024, copper prices swung upwards more quickly than anticipated. The Comex price climbed as high as US$5.20 per pound, or US$11,464 per metric ton, a new all-time high, and the LME three month price set an all-time high of US$11,104 per metric ton the same day. They have since pulled back as of June, but the fundamentals remain.
With the demand picture unclear, copper couldn’t hold above the US$9,000 level. As a result, it went on a slide, reaching US$7,910 as of early October 2023. Copper managed to close the year close to the US$8,500 mark.
It began climbing in earnest in Q2 on building anticipation that the Federal Reserve may soon launch its rate cut cycle alongside a worsening supply side picture. On May 20, 2024, the price of copper reached its highest recorded price of US$5.20 per pound, or US$11,464 per MT.
However, the price of the base metal moved back under US$10,000 by the end of the month.
Is the optimism of an impending bull market for the red metal still warranted? Let’s look at the current supply and demand factors that could influence copper prices to the upside.
Copper’s many useful properties have translated into demand from diverse industries. Construction and electronics have long been the main drivers for copper demand, and with a conductivity rating that’s second only to silver, it’s no wonder copper is also an ideal metal for use in energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging infrastructure.
The firm is projecting that global refined copper demand will nearly double from 25 million MT in 2021 to about 49 million MT in 2035. Energy transition technologies are expected to account for nearly half of that demand growth. “The world has never produced anywhere close to this much copper in such a short time frame,” the firm notes in its report.
Property sector aside, copper demand out of China is likely to get a boost from the Chinese government’s commitment to investing in its electrical infrastructure and green energy economy.
Watch the full interview with Rob McEwen and Michael Meding above.
In a recent interview, Rob McEwen and Michael Meding discussed McEwen Copper’s plans to release a feasibility study for the company’s Argentina-based Los Azules copper project by the first quarter of 2025.
Of course, demand is just one side of the story for copper prices. For more than a decade, the world’s largest copper mines have struggled with steadily declining copper grades and a lack of new copper discoveries.
The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated challenges in the global copper supply chain as both mining and refining activities in several top copper-producing countries were slowed or halted altogether. The economic uncertainty also led miners to delay further investments in copper exploration and development — a complicating factor given that it can take more than 15 years to develop a newly discovered deposit into a producing mine.
Murphy also suggested that current economic trends are not only preventing projects from entering the pipeline, but also sandbagging current projects.
“Drilling has been in a downtrend as well, and it’s a bit worse than budgets in 2023, which indicates some inflation has hit the mark,” he stated. “It’s a hard industry. The standard is about 3 percent, (and) at the moment we’re thinking that budgets are probably down 5 percent (in 2024).”
Supply instability out of the world’s largest copper-producing countries, Chile and Peru, has also weighed heavily on the market in the past few years. Together, they represent a combined 40 percent of global output.
So when will copper go up? Together, strong demand and tight supply can create the right market environment for higher prices.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2021.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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