The rare earths market was punctuated by significant fluctuations during the first half of 2024.
Global supply continued to struggle to meet rising demand, particularly outside of China. Early stage projects in countries like the US, Korea and India are showing promise, but have so far been insufficient to close the growing supply gap.
Conversely, while rare earths demand across key end-use segments — electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies — started the year strong, some demand eroded during Q2, which was reflected in lower prices.
Geopolitical tensions also intensified toward the end of the quarter, and are likely to impact the market through H2.
Global rare earths supply has been increasing annually since 2020, when total production topped 240,000 metric tons (MT). In 2023, global mine supply grew to 350,000 MT, with the majority of this fresh supply coming out of China.
In 2020, the Asian nation produced 140,000 MT of rare earths, with output ballooning to 240,000 MT in 2023.
“China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology raised 2023 quotas for rare-earth mining and separation to 240,000 tons and 230,000 tons of REO equivalent, respectively,” as per the US Geological Survey. “In 2023, mine production quotas were allocated to 220,850 tons of light rare earths and 19,150 tons of ion-adsorption clays.”
In February, the country issued its first round of 2024 quotas.
The quotas were targeted at China’s two major rare earths companies. “China North Rare Earth Corp has been allocated a mining quota for light rare earth of 94,580 tonnes and a smelting quota of 88,010 tonnes, China Rare Earth Group received a total mining quota of 40,420 tonnes including 30,280 tonnes for light rare earth, and 10,140 for ion-absorbed rare earth (medium and heavy rare earth), and a total smelting quota of 38,990 tonnes,” Fastmarkets explains.
In terms of top-producing mines, China’s Bayan Obo mines in Inner Mongolia make up the majority of market supply, followed by Mount Weld in Australia and Mountain Pass in the US.
Looking ahead to 2030, China is expected to remain the top producer of magnet rare earths, while Australia’s share of global production is projected to rise to 18 percent, and the US is anticipated to maintain a 7 percent share.
“The major concern for magnet rare earths is not a huge gap between demand and supply like in the case of copper or lithium, but rather an extremely important level of geographical concentration of today’s as well as future mining and refining projects that expose this market significantly to supply disruptions,” it reads.
Now Lynas controls 15 percent of the rare earths market and is planning on expanding its presence in the space.
Currently Lynas operates the Mount Weld rare earths mine in Western Australia, and is a major global producer of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, a key material for neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets.
In late June, Lynas announced plans to begin producing separated heavy rare earths products at its Kuantan refinery in Malaysia, with commissioning and ramp-up expected by mid-2025. The facility will have an estimated annual throughput of 1,500 MT of a mixed heavy rare earths compound, which includes samarium, europium, gadolinium and holmium. Initial estimates for dysprosium and terbium production capacity haven’t been provided.
“This circuit reconfiguration at Lynas Malaysia provides a pathway to accelerate our commitment to processing all of the elements in the Mt Weld ore body,” said Amanda Lacaze, CEO and managing director of Lynas.
The funding will facilitate the construction of a sintered NdFeB rare earth magnet plant in an American city. It is expected to be operational by late fall 2025.
The project, which began in March, is supported by the US Qualifying Advanced Energy Project Tax Credit (48C) under the Inflation Reduction Act). In its first phase, this initiative allocated US$10 billion in funding, with US$800 million in tax credits, to select projects focused on critical materials recycling, processing and refining.
Along with oversupply, 2024 has brought weaker rare earths demand in key end-use segments, like the EV sector, due to lower consumer buying. In turn, that has caused prices to trend lower.
She identifies weak EV demand, a global economic downturn, previous volatility and geopolitics as culprits.
These rules, covering the mining, smelting and trade of these crucial materials, emphasize that rare earth resources belong to the state. The government will oversee the development of China’s rare earths industry, where the country has become the leading producer, accounting for nearly 90 percent of global refined output.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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