Our expert predicts a silver break out in 2024. How high could it go?
The Investing News Network spoke with analysts, market watchers and insiders to get you their silver forecasts as well as list of trends and stocks that you need to know about in order to stay ahead of the anticipated silver rally.
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2023 was a relatively lackluster year for silver, which largely traded between US$22 and US$25 per ounce.
The white metal started 2024 on a similar note, with its price remaining fairly rangebound for the first eight weeks of the year. It dropped to US$22.08 on January 21, marking its quarterly low.
Silver started seeing gains in March on expectations that the US Federal Reserve was getting closer to lowering interest rates. Improving sentiment gave precious metals momentum, causing silver to reach its quarterly high of US$25.62 on March 20; it then continued on to an 11 year high of US$29.26 on April 12.
These gains were reinforced by positive language following the Fed’s March meeting, when the central bank said inflation was continuing to progress toward its target of 2 percent. Even though it was unwilling to commit to dates, the Fed suggested it was done with hikes and was expecting to make three cuts to its benchmark rate in 2024.
Silver price, Q1 2024.
While gold captured attention as it set price records in March and April, silver has produced better returns for investors. In an April 9 email to the Investing News Network (INN), Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and author of “The Great Silver Bull,” commented on the white metal’s performance during the quarter.
“Silver also typically lags gold, then catches up and surpasses it. We’re starting to see that happen in spades right now. Since the end of February, gold is up about 15 percent, while silver is up about 22 percent,” he said.
Krauth emphasized, “Those are breathtaking gains in just a matter of weeks.”
According to Krauth, this rise came alongside decreasing inventories at the COMEX, London Bullion Market Association and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where stockpiles have dropped 40 percent over the past three years.
“That helps explain why the silver price didn’t rise in the face of ongoing deficits. But these inventories are being drained, and I think there may be 12 to 24 months left before they run out.”
Also helping to draw down inventories is industrial demand for silver. The biggest contributing sectors are related to the energy transition, particularly the production of photovoltaics and electric vehicles.
Krauth pointed to the Silver Institute, a top industry association, which is calling for silver to record a structural deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2024, with shortfalls to continue for several more years.
India has been a critical driver of demand, importing 94 million ounces of silver in the first two months of 2024, including 71 million ounces in February alone — that represents nearly an entire month of global mine production.
While the Silver Institute notes that demand for silverware and jewelry in India remains strong, it also says there is growing industrial demand as India sees an increasing focus on infrastructure development.
This comes as new N-type solar cells, which require greater amounts of silver, enter mass production in 2024.
On the supply side, the Silver Institute is predicting a decline of 1 percent in 2024, with 1 billion ounces being made available. Recycled quantities of silver are expected to remain flat at 178.9 million ounces, while the biggest drop is seen coming from mine production, with an estimated total of 823.5 million ounces in 2024.
This differential suggests a widening deficit of 215.3 million ounces, a year-on-year increase of 17 percent.
Silver is primarily produced as a by-product of gold, lead, zinc and copper, with these mines accounting for 595.2 million ounces in 2023. Meanwhile, primary silver mines produced just 235.2 million ounces.
With a contraction in mine output forecast for 2024 and increasing industrial demand over the next several years, the Silver Institute is projecting more tightness over the next few years.
Krauth sees two standout projects set to add millions of ounces over the next year.
Krauth sees strong upside in silver’s industrial applications, although he believes many market participants still see it largely as a precious metal. However, attitudes may be starting to change.
Krauth thinks such a move would boost silver’s status among investors, and is a point to watch in Q2.
“I, along with the entire sector, will be watching closely to see whether silver makes the list or not. If it does, I think that would be a shot in the arm for silver. The broader investment community would pay more attention to silver’s significant structural supply shortages,” he explained to INN.
Krauth wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback in silver this year, but thinks it is in a sustained bull market. He expects the price to continue to hold at US$28, and probably grow to US$30 in the second half of the year.
As silver sees upward momentum going into the next quarter, it may present opportunities for investors who want an alternative to gold, or are keen to take advantage of the white metal’s increasing role as an industrial metal.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
After starting the year trading in the US$22 per ounce range, the price of silver saw little change until March, when the white metal began to gain momentum following a US Federal Reserve meeting.
While the Fed left interest rates steady at that time, dovish language provided critical support for silver as investors pushed the price above US$25. Silver continued its upward trend through April and into May, when it climbed above US$32 for the first time since November 2012 and set a year-to-date high of US$32.07 on May 27.
A number of factors have been driving the price of silver upward in 2024.
Even though rate cuts from the Fed have yet to materialize, softening interest rates and slowing economic growth have led to greater speculation that at least one reduction will come in the second half of the year.
Silver was initially followed gold higher in the March to May period. However, the gains in silver have outpaced gold nearly two to one in 2024. To date, silver has risen nearly 30 percent, while gold has only gained 15 percent.
Silver price, January 1, 2024, to July 16, 2024.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo said that the close link between silver and gold has led some investors to use it as a leverage play to gain exposure to gold.
“In addition, silver’s low unit cost and lower entry level have also made it more attractive to retail investors with a limited investment budget,” DiRienzo explained.
“That market dynamic has changed, and it’s moving more strongly with gold again as a monetary metal should … I think it’s fantastic news for silver — and long-suffering silver bulls out there,” he said.
Improved sentiment has coincided with heightened industrial demand, particularly in the Indian market. Overall, silver demand is projected to grow by 2 percent in 2024, with the Silver Institute forecasting that industrial demand will increase by 9 percent — photovoltaics alone are expected to see a 20 percent gain.
DiRienzo said that while the primary silver demand in India continues to be from the production of jewelry, the precious metal has also benefited from “firmer electrical & electronics demand, thanks to the continued strength in India’s real estate market and rising investment in local infrastructure construction.”
Additionally, he noted that Indian manufacturing of solar cells received additional support as companies reduced their reliance on Chinese manufacturing and diversified their supply lines for solar panels.
Last year, a flagging Chinese economy not only put base metals under pressure, but dragged on silver as well. According to DiRienzo, fiscal stimulus measures implemented by the Chinese government have provided crucial support.
“Expectations on further fiscal stimulus for the Chinese economy led to a sharp rebound in base metal prices during 2024-to-date, which has benefited silver,” he said.
While both retail and industrial demand is growing, it’s not just demand driving prices.
According to the Silver Institute, Mexico and Argentina had steep output declines in 2023, with production falling by 10.9 million ounces and 4.9 million ounces, respectively. The Silver Institute predicts that global production will fall further in 2024 to 823.5 million ounces due to the closure of several mines in Peru.
While it isn’t expected to eclipse these declines, new silver supply is coming online from various sources this year.
Despite these new and expanded mining operations bringing significant new silver supply to the market, it’s still a far cry from meeting the more than 200 million ounce deficit.
While gold tends to garner more of the media attention, silver has already been a stronger performer in 2024. Since its move began this year, a variety of experts have suggested the white metal has further to go.
“We still have the gold-to-silver ratio somewhere around 75; it’s averaged about 55 or 60 over the last few decades, so just on that basis if gold were to stay put, silver has a lot higher to go,” Krauth said.
“Typically when you get the ratio running down, both metals do well, but silver continues to do even better … so look for this to be a really tremendous run over the next months and years,” he added.
While this might not be good news for manufacturers that require silver and consumers who buy their products, it’s positive news for existing silver investors and new market participants who are looking for opportunities for a safe-haven investment that doesn’t come with the high entry point of gold.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Affiliate Disclosure: The Investing News Network may earn commission from qualifying purchases or actions made through the links or advertisements on this page.
Speaking to the Investing News Network, Chen Lin of Lin Asset Management shared his outlook for silver, explaining that the white metal could move quickly to the US$50 per ounce level once market participants realize how large the divide between supply and demand really is.
When asked about the most important drivers for silver right now, he pointed to the solar industry, noting that two to three years ago it was consuming 100 million ounces of silver; that amount rose to 200 million ounces last year.
This year, the Silver Institute is projecting a further 40 million ounces of solar demand, but Lin thinks the sector may end up requiring an extra 100 million ounces, bringing its total usage to 300 million ounces for 2024.
“From all the data I get, it’s 100 million … so from 200 million to 300 million,” he said. A new report out of Germany has an even higher projection, forecasting that the solar market could consume 400 million ounces of silver this year.
“My point is that once investors see the huge deficit, they truly see the huge deficit in silver, silver will go to US$50 just like that — just in a heartbeat,” Lin said, adding that so far most market participants haven’t gotten there.
When asked how he’s getting exposure to silver, Lin said he’s heavily exposed in the future market. However, he doesn’t recommend that path for everyone as the leverage involved can be highly risky.
“If they are not making money at US$20 (silver), at US$30 suddenly there’s a huge profit,” he said.
Watch the interview above for more from Lin on his outlook for silver and ways to invest.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
When it comes to gold, he pointed to a “powerful mover” that he thinks could be in play — a change in global portfolio allocations to the yellow metal. Historically the allocation has been 2 percent, but more recently it’s been 0.5 percent.
“I think that what we’re seeing is that changing. And maybe it doesn’t go back to 2 percent, but if it just goes back to 1 percent, that doubles the investment demand for gold from where we are now,” he said.
Looking at silver, he said lately it’s correlated more closely to copper than to gold; however, that dynamic now seems to be changing. “I think it’s fantastic — not just good — I think it’s fantastic news for silver … that it’s acting as a monetary metal should,” he said at the Rule Symposium, held last week in Boca Raton, Florida.
With that in mind, Tiggre and his team are on the lookout for stocks that meet his criteria. One of those is jurisdiction — while he’s seen strong discoveries in places like Mexico, the political risk is too high for him to be interested.
Watch the interview above for more from Tiggre on gold and silver, as well uranium.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Affiliate Disclosure: The Investing News Network may earn commission from qualifying purchases or actions made through the links or advertisements on this page.
The precious metal silver is often compared to gold, and is important in jewellery and as a safe haven.
Unlike gold, silver has many industrial applications too, including in electronics, automobiles, medicine and photography, and, of course, silverware. Energy transition applications are a growing demand sector for silver — the metal is valued for its conductive capacity, which makes it particularly useful in the production of photovoltaic panels.
Silver also set a new all-time high in Australian dollars on May 29, when it climbed to AU$48.46. While the price of silver has pulled back below US$30 in recent weeks, it has still been trading at levels not seen since 2021.
Market cap: AU$950.72 million; share price: AU$2.95
Market cap: AU$233.75 million; share price: AU$0.145
Silver Mines is an advanced-stage silver exploration and development company focused on its Bowdens silver project, which is located in Central New South Wales, 26 kilometres east of Mudgee.
Market cap: AU$64,94 million; share price: AU$0.041
Investigator Resources is a polymetallic exploration and development company with assets throughout Australia and Tasmania. Its flagship property is the Paris silver project, located on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula. The company has referred to Paris as Australia’s highest-grade undeveloped silver project.
Market cap: AU$45.61 million; share price: AU$0.145
Market cap: AU$10.14 million; share price: AU$0.089
Lode Resources is an exploration company focused on the development of assets within the New England Fold Belt. Its flagship property is the Webbs Consol silver-base metals project, located 16 kilometres southwest of Emmaville, New South Wales. The resource was originally discovered in 1890 and was mined until the mid-1950s.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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