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Gold saw incredible price gains in 2024, rising from US$2,000 per ounce to close to US$2,800.
Various factors have lent support, including 75 basis points worth of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and uncertainty in global financial markets.
Read on for more on what factors moved the gold price in Q4, followed by a look back at the entire year.
“I still see the global central bank buying as the main driver — as it has been over the last 15 years. This demand removes supply from the market. They are the ultimate buy-and-hold participants and have been buying massive amounts” — David Barrett, EBC Financial Group
The gold price began Q4 at US$2,660.30, but quickly saw a retraction to US$2,608.40 on October 9. However, the decline didn’t last, and gold again rose, setting a new record high of US$2,785.40 on October 30.
The surge upward was fueled by a weaker-than-expected September US consumer price index report, which showed annual inflation of 2.4 percent and monthly inflation of 0.2 percent. These numbers were higher than analysts’ forecasts of 2.3 and 0.1 percent, raising expectations that the Fed would cut rates at its November meeting.
By November 15, the price of gold had fallen to its quarterly low of US$2,562.50.
The end of the month saw gold leap to US$2,715.80 on November 22. Following this peak, gold entered December below the US$2,700 mark, closing at US$2,660.50 on December 9.
Gold price, Q4 2024.
Geopolitical impacts have been important to gold in Q4.
The threat of a significant escalation has bolstered gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset and store of value.
Gold set its first record price of the year at US$2,251.37 on March 31.
Central bank buying, notably China’s purchase of 22 metric tons of gold in the first two months of the year, supported the price. Turkey, Kazakhstan and India also significantly increased their holdings at the start of the year.
Gold price, Q1 2024.
“As central banks continue to be significant buyers and geopolitical risks and global uncertainties drive investors towards the perceived safety of gold, the current environment underscores gold’s importance as a strategic asset for portfolio diversification and risk mitigation. Therefore, while there may have been a perception of western disinterest in gold, recent developments indicate a sustained and broad-based demand for the precious metal,” Joe Cavatoni, market strategist, Americas, told the Investing News Network (INN) in an email at the time.
The gold price saw increasing momentum in Q2, setting a new all-time of US$2,450.05 on May 20.
Gains through the quarter were influenced by strong central bank demand. Investor sentiment toward the yellow metal also shifted, with outflows from western exchange-traded funds starting to slow.
Gold price, Q2 2024.
“All of a sudden, gold was off to the races. It jumped so high that suddenly, you had some short covering that needed to happen then as well. So you had short covering, which means they’re buying. And then you had momentum chasers and traders jumping all in. That was a pretty good spike … that’s what kind of started all of this,” he said.
Gold set another record price during the third quarter, reaching US$2,672.51 on September 26.
The high came just a week after the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting, when it announced a jumbo 50 basis point cut to the federal funds rate. While the People’s Bank of China maintained its pause on gold purchases in the third quarter, it granted several regional banks new import quotas in August.
Gold price, Q3 2024.
David Barrett, CEO of the UK division of global brokerage firm EBC Financial Group, suggested at the time that Fed rate cuts were less of a factor for gold than central bank buying. “I still see the global central bank buying as the main driver — as it has been over the last 15 years. This demand removes supply from the market. They are the ultimate buy-and-hold participants and have been buying massive amounts,” he told INN via email.
Overall, uncertainty has been a key driver for gold in 2024.
The World Gold Council notes that on a rolling four-quarter basis, central bank buying has slowed to 909 metric tons — that’s compared to 1,215 metric tons one year ago.
Investors also began returning to the precious metal throughout 2024 as geopolitical tensions and fragile economies pushed them toward gold as a safe haven to help shield their portfolios from volatility.
With the world’s largest economy set to welcome Trump back to the White House in 2025, there are many unknowns. His economic policies could cause inflation to begin creeping up. In contrast, his foreign policies could create new ripples through global trade and financial markets given that he campaigned on more protectionist policies.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
The gold price saw incredible momentum in 2024, gaining almost 30 percent during the period.
As the start of 2025 approaches, the world is facing a great deal of uncertainty. Several regions are experiencing geopolitical instability, and a new US president could bring further chaos to an already fragile global economy.
What does this mean for gold, and what should investors expect in the new year?
Trump’s campaign promises included lower taxes, the introduction of broad tariffs on foreign goods and sweeping immigration reforms that would result in the deportation of millions of undocumented laborers.
“People could get so optimistic about Trump’s ‘pro-growth’ agenda that investors start deploying more of the mountain of cash they’re sitting on … but Elon and Vivek going to Washington with Milei’s chainsaw could scare markets,” he said.
David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group UK, also expressed uncertainty to INN.
“Trump likes to keep the opposition, domestic or foreign, on edge. His unpredictability is his weapon of choice. Looking at some of his administration picks and the potential clash with the Federal Reserve, I suspect taking a hard view on sentiment for 2025 is not a wise game for now,” he said via email.
Barrett suggested that investors hold some money on the sidelines until they can determine how Trump’s presidency begins and whether his return lives up to his pre-election promises, especially regarding conflicts overseas.
“The larger players simply have not made enough discoveries. If they don’t want to mine themselves out of existence, they’re going to have to buy more of the companies that have done the work” — Lobo Tiggre, IndependentSpeculator.com
Trump’s return to the White House is just one of the geopolitical situations that could affect gold in 2025.
Tiggre noted that flareups tend to drive gold, but the effects are usually temporary and revert back to trend.
“So even if gold retreats after each successive scare, there’s no real downside for gold here.”
However, Tiggre added that if one of the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine or even Taiwan were to escalate into a direct military conflict between major world powers, it would likely send gold “screaming” upward.
Asia, the Middle East and some Eastern European countries are leading the way. Although not all countries report their purchases, the ones that do are carefully tracked by the World Gold Council.
Although there appeared to be a slowdown in central bank buying in the middle of the year, Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council, said it rebounded strongly at the end of 2024.
Looking forward to 2025, Cavatoni said he expects central banks to still be a major driver for the price of gold even though the metal is priced near all-time highs. “This continued interest reaffirms gold’s role as a strategic asset that goes beyond the price to manage risks and diversify reserves,” he said.
In comments to INN, Julia Kandoshko, CEO of European brokerage firm Mind Money, echoed a similar sentiment.
“The growing share of India and the Middle East in global GDP has an additional impact on the demand for gold, especially given the increasing use of gold as a reserve in these areas,” she said.
The scale of central bank purchases has provided gold with a critical support structure, and has also fueled speculation that the precious metal may be used to back an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar.
Barrett suggested this trend has been ongoing for the past 15 years.
He said central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2010 at about 7,000 metric tons. As the ultimate buy-and-hold participant, their activity has not only removed significant supply from the market, but has also contributed to current market conditions, which have made gold attractive to a wide audience.
Tiggre expressed surprise at the lack of deals in the gold space given current high prices.
“The larger players simply have not made enough discoveries. If they don’t want to mine themselves out of existence, they’re going to have to buy more of the companies that have done the work,” he said.
Kandoshko echoed this sentiment, saying mergers are a means for larger companies to access exploration projects, expand reserves and optimize costs. She believes 2024’s higher prices could pave the way for deals in 2025.
Barrett believes mergers haven’t happened for a myriad of reasons, chiefly that the price of gold hasn’t reached the level to overcome the economic factors that have driven industry costs over the last several years.
“I suspect the main reason is the massive rise in production costs and higher interest rates … labor, energy and raw materials have all risen significantly,” he said. The implication is that higher returns have yet to be realized — gold miners still haven’t overcome higher operating costs due to today’s economic situation.
Central banks are expected to continue supporting the gold price in 2025; however, with Trump entering office, his policies could pull gold in different directions. It may be hard for investors to know what to do.
Cavatoni suggested that a strong US economy and lower deficit under Trump would push the dollar higher, leading to investors seeking to add riskier assets to their portfolios. “If this is what develops as a reaction to Trump’s mandate, it would be supportive to gold allocations as a safe haven,” he said.
For her part, Khandoshko sees gold maintaining its upward momentum, saying she sees the metal increasing to US$2,800 in the next six months and rising to US$3,000 at some point during the new year.
Although reluctant to make a prediction, Tiggre also believes gold will trend higher in 2025.
“How much higher? It is hard to say, but a real all-time-high of just under US$3,500 is less than 35 percent higher than where we are today. That seems doable,” he said.
If gold continues moving up, it could give gold companies the boost they need and could create new opportunities for investors who have been taking a wait-and-see approach.
Maybe more than ever, 2025 is bringing political and economic uncertainty that could see strategies compete between pursuing riskier equities or adding more exposure to gold through bullion or gold-backed products.
The smart play may be to not jump into 2025 headfirst and instead take some time to see how key situations develop through the first part of the year.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Brightstar Resources is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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“If you look traditionally, the momentum in gold attracts Wall Street, and it attracts Main Street and it attracts the generalist investors to the space. We really aren’t seeing that to any great degree,” he said.
Rule also discussed his best-performing investments of 2024 and shared his highest-convictions sectors for 2025.
Looking back at 2024, he pointed to silver juniors, saying they were a coiled spring.
“That trade happened. The better silver juniors are uniformly up 200 or 300 percent — before there was a silver bull market,” Rule explained. “It happened just because they were so oversold and they were so hated.”
He also said the “very best gold stocks” have performed well and are starting to be noticed.
“The other theme for 2024 that I think continues and accelerates into 2025 is the gradual realization among the investment community that oil and gas is here to stay,” Rule continued. He added that while oil prices didn’t go up this past year, the operating performance of North American oil and gas companies has been “fantastic.”
In terms of other sectors to watch in 2025, Rule said investors and speculators have different choices. For speculators, he suggested the “better” gold juniors, while he believes investors should aim to be overweight oil and gas.
“If you’re a Canadian investor, you want to stay north of the border. If you have a federal election, and if Canadian voters decide to allow the prime minister to afford other employment opportunities, I think you’d see the Canadian oil and gas sector basically double overnight,” he said during the conversation.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
He also discussed gold’s post-US election price activity, saying its pullback presents a buying opportunity.
“You don’t have to be a genius to see the opportunity here — we know that as long as the metals prices keep progressing, or even just stay at these levels, that the miners are going to have to follow. So it’s a great opportunity I think, and everybody needs to look at it very hard and make sure they’re positioned well for it,” Lundin said.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Gold came into mainstream focus in 2024 as it continued to set records in all major currencies. For Australia, that happened on October 29, when gold reached an all-time high of AU$4,230.70 per ounce.
Gold’s momentum was fuelled by geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe as tensions rose between Russia and Ukraine, as well as by a flareup in the Middle East as Lebanon and Iran were drawn into the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Additional support came in the form of continued central bank buying, as China, India and Turkey all added large quantities of gold to their coffers. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve made a supersized 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Against that backdrop, the ASX-listed gold stocks below have been the year’s biggest gainers.
Year-to-date gain: 685.71 percent
Market cap: AU$171.71 million
Share price: AU$0.55
Year-to-date gain: 417.98 percent
Market cap: AU$140.58 million
Share price: AU$0.255
Labyrinth Resources is a gold exploration and development company focused on advancing brownfield assets in Western Australia and Canada. The company’s Canadian properties are the Labyrinth and Denian projects in Québec.
Labyrinth’s primary focus for the majority of the year has been its properties in Western Australia.
Labyrinth also announced it had entered into a binding share agreement to acquire Distilled Analytics’ 100 percent share of the Vivien gold project. The company said the acquisition will provide a near-term opportunity to define a resource for the Vivien Main pit and Vivien Gem prospect from the existing project drill database.
Shares of Labyrinth reached a year-to-date high of AU$0.29 on October 25.
Year-to-date gain: 233.33 percent
Market cap: AU$189.04 million
Share price: AU$0.14
WIA Gold is an exploration company focused on developing projects in Africa. The company’s primary goal is to advance the Kokoseb deposit, which is located at its Damaran gold project.
Kokoseb is located on WIA’s Okombahe exploration licence, which consists of 12 tenements across a 2,700 square kilometre area within the Damaran Belt in Northwest Namibia. WIA Gold holds an 80 percent stake in the exploration licence, with the remaining 20 percent being held by Namibian state-owned mining company Epangelo.
Additionally, the company said exploration at Bouafle had yielded several significant results, including one sample with 87.43 g/t gold over 4 metres. WIA also reported that it had commenced a 2,000 metre follow-up program in October with the goal of uncovering the full potential of the mineralised zone and surrounding area.
Shares of WIA reached a year-to-date high of AU$0.175 on October 21.
Year-to-date gain: 230.43 percent
Market cap: AU$625.97 million
Share price: AU$2.66
As for Henty, Catalyst said it achieved record quarterly production and produced 24,982 ounces for the entire year. According to the company, the mine is on its way to annual output of 30,000 ounces.
Shares of Catalyst reached a year-to-date high of AU$3.54 on November 1.
Year-to-date gain: 191.67 percent
Market cap: AU$1.32 billion
Share price: AU$0.70
Ora Banda Mining is a gold producer operating out of the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia.
Its flagship Davyhurst asset covers about 1,200 square kilometres. As of June 30, Davyhurst hosted total resources of 1.95 million ounces of contained gold from 23.3 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 2.6 g/t gold. The site hosts pre-existing infrastructure, including a 1.2 million tonne per annum processing facility.
Missouri and Sand King contributed a combined 56,574 ounces during the period before they ceased operations.
Looking forward, the company has set increasing guidance figures over the next two years, expecting production in the 100,000 to 110,000 ounce range in its 2025 fiscal year and in the 140,000 to 160,000 ounce range the next year.
The bulk of the increase over thosr two years is expected to come from new production from the planned Sand King underground mine once it comes online in the 2025 fiscal year.
Shares of Ora Banda reached a year-to-date high of AU$0.955 on October 30.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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