Are you plugged into the EV revolution? Stay ahead of the markets with our outlook report, featuring the top stocks to watch, expert predictions and key industry developments.
“Despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, we are projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64 million units in 2024 and increase 33% in 2025”
— Jonathan Davenport, Gartner
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However, with 2024 now half over, trends have emerged that show the outlook may not be quite so simple.
What factors are at play this year, and what are the key EV trends to watch? Here the Investing News Network takes a look at what’s moving the EV market in 2024, as well as what’s on the horizon for the EV sector longer term.
However, taking a look at year-on-year figures shows that combined EV sales for the first two months of the year were actually up by 32 percent over the January/February period in 2023.
Compared to the same period last year, the number of EVs purchased was up by 20 percent.
This growth isn’t even across the board, though. One of the key trends to watch in this year’s EV market landscape is the marked difference in growth trajectories for the three major regional markets.
China continues to lead the world in EV adoption rates, based on Rho Motion’s data.
The Chinese EV market grew by 31 percent in the January to May period versus 2023, compared to just 5 percent growth in North America (excluding Mexico) and 4 percent in Europe.
Looking at May alone, China’s sales were up 36 percent year-on-year. The numbers were not so hot for the other two key markets, which were down by 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
This is on top of the standard 10 percent car duty.
“A surge of low-cost EV imports from China will undermine everything being done right now to rebuild and grow a strong and truly national auto industry,” Unifor President Lana Payne said.
Q1 2024 year-on-year EV sales growth by brand in the US.
General Motors’ sales drop had little to do with a drop in demand, but rather because it stopped production of its Chevy Bolt, one of the best-selling EV models in the US. Its new EV, the Chevy Equinox, is expected to release in 2024.
“We will not launch a second-gen (EV) product unless it’s profitable within the first year and we are going to get a return on that capital we’re investing,” said Ford CFO John Lawler.
This is telling, coming from the second best-selling EV brand in the US so far in 2024.
In addition to BEVs, the Japanese car maker is focused on hybrid and hydrogen-powered vehicles; it is also continuing with its internal combustion engine (ICE) models.
So what’s in store for the rest of 2024? Much optimism still remains for the EV market for the remainder of the year.
“Electric cars continue to make progress towards becoming a mass-market product in a larger number of countries,” the IEA states. “Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation, and the phase-out of purchase incentives in some countries have sparked concerns about the industry’s pace of growth, but global sales data remain strong.”
Looking further out, the IEA expects that EVs will represent half of total global auto sales in 2035. That figure could increase to two-thirds if governments are able to meet all their energy and climate mandates on schedule.
Speeding up the adoption of EVs will also require automakers to bring more affordable models to market that are price competitive with their internal combustion engine equivalents. China is already doing well in this facet of the market; however, much ground needs to be covered in the North American and European markets, which are struggling with supply chain issues for EV battery metals, as well as a lack of public charging infrastructure.
According to IEA estimates, more than 60 percent of EVs sold in China last year were cheaper than their ICE counterparts. In Europe and the US, depending on the geographic location and the vehicle type, the agency reports that EVs are 10 percent to 50 percent more expensive than ICE vehicles. On the plus side, based on current trends, the IEA forecasts that price parity between EVs and ICE vehicles could be reached in ex-China markets by 2030.
EV sales forecast by region through 2040.
Using its base-case scenario, the firm’s analysts predict that by 2027, annual passenger EV sales will reach 30 million, representing 33 percent of total global vehicle sales, and forecast that EV sales will top 40 million in 2030. By 2040, they predict this figure will hit 73 million, making up 73 percent of total vehicle sales worldwide.
This base-case scenario is based on consumer demand replacing policy-driven demand as battery prices decline, costs become competitive with ICE vehicles and battery technologies improve range and performance.
In 2024, the global EV market is sending clear signals that this is very much a growth-stage market.
The early adopters have bought in, and now automakers must prove that their products are worth the average consumer’s hard-earned dollars. Additionally, if governments want car buyers to come along for the ride on the road to net zero, they’ll have to play a bigger role incentivizing both consumers and producers to go all in on EVs.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are an essential part of the transition to a cleaner, greener economy.
EVs are also a key driver of demand for battery metals, such as lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel and copper. Investors interested in these metals are keeping a close eye on the growth outlook for the global EV market.
So what are the key EV sector trends to follow? Here the Investing News Network (INN) takes a look at what moved the market in 2024, as well as what’s on the horizon for the EV sector in 2025.
Once again China led the way, amassing nearly two-thirds of total global sales during the period.
Purchases of EVs in this region were up 38 percent in the first 10 months of the year to 8.4 million units. That’s compared to 9 percent growth in the US and Canada, and a 3 percent decline in Europe.
China’s dominance in the global EV market is beginning to bleed into other markets.
Global EV sales, 2017 to 2024.
Despite these challenges, the US EV market landscape has several bright spots.
Third quarter EV sales grew by 11 percent year-on-year, according to Cox Automotive. Even Tesla’s sales returned to growth, rising 6.6 percent, while General Motors posted a 60 percent sales gain for the same period.
The European market also struggled in 2024, especially in Germany, the largest producer of EVs in this region. The German government cut subsidies for EVs at the end of 2023, which has disincentivized buyers in 2024.
Battery car registrations declined after incentives were removed last year.
Europe’s auto makers are facing growing challenges ahead of the approaching 2035 ban on the production of any new internal combustion engine vehicles. New EV registrations fell in the second half of the year, including in France and Italy, while the UK has seen some positive gains, as per Bloomberg.
One of the biggest challenges currently facing the EV industry is the problem of appealing to mainstream consumers, many of whom are dealing with high interest rates amid a cost-of-living crisis.
Throw in the higher cost for tires, one-off repairs and the possibility of having to replace an exorbitantly priced battery, and it becomes clear why the hesitancy is palpable. Range anxiety, especially in colder climates, long charging times and a lack of reliable charging infrastructure are also significant barriers to EV adoption. But nothing trumps cost.
Overall, PwC found that 75 percent of respondents in Europe, the Middle East and Africa cited the cost of EV ownership as the biggest factor swaying their decision to purchase. On top of that, one-third of EV owners surveyed said they would consider going back to gas-powered vehicles to avoid high maintenance costs and limited range.
Subsidies and tax breaks have helped to ease the price burden, but pullbacks on these rebates have hit the market hard in some European countries where high interest rates and costs continue to put EV purchases out of reach.
Despite the slowdown in adoption, 2024 is still expected to be another record year for the global EV industry.
One of 2024’s important EV market trends that is likely to carry on into 2025 is the popularity of hybrid models over wholly electric vehicles. This trend is very much in line with the affordability and range anxiety factors influencing sales.
To meet customers where they are at right now, auto makers are switching gears to bring more hybrid models to market, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Outside of China, the US and Europe, EV sales are growing in emerging markets.
Mexico, for example, is on its way to becoming a major EV production hub.
The growth in Mexico’s EV industry can be attributed to a number of factors, explained Whitcomb.
Those include its established transport production chains, geographic location, strong position in the traditional global auto industry and trade agreements. “But from an EV standpoint in particular, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been central to stimulating EV production in Mexico,” he added.
“The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide,” states Jonathan Davenport, senior director analyst at Gartner.
In 2025, the firm estimates that 49 million EVs will be on Chinese roadways, compared to 20.6 million in Europe and 10.4 million in North America.
Gartner sees China continuing its domination of the global EV landscape for at least another decade. For its part, EV Volumes expects BEVs to “gain ground in the BEV-PHEV mix from 2025 onwards” in China as the government offers further financial supports to motivate consumers.
Europe’s light-vehicle EV market will see a growth rate of 22.8 percent in 2025, according to EV Volumes, followed by a further 20.1 percent increase in 2026 and a 21.1 percent rise in 2027.
By 2030, the firm sees EVs accounting for 61 percent of the overall light-vehicle market in the region.
Within the EV market itself, BEVs are still dominating over hybrid models and are expected to account for 82.4 percent of total US EV sales for 2025, up from 78.6 percent in 2024.
The IRA, brought forward by the Biden administration in mid-2022, introduced significant tax credits for EV buyers, helping to take the edge off the cost burden of buying into the clean technology. While the IRA is slated to run through 2032, there are concerns that President-elect Donald Trump may reverse those benefits once he takes office in 2025.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
The energy revolution is here to stay, and electric vehicles (EVs) have become part of the mainstream narrative.
The shift toward green energy is gathering momentum, with the US and Europe adding more incentives to accelerate this transition. Increasing EV sales are good news for battery metals investors, as EVs are the main price driver for commodities such as lithium and cobalt — key components in the cathodes of EV batteries.
Market cap: US$584.69 billion; current share price: US$183.59
Tesla said in 2021 that it was changing the battery chemistry for its standard-range vehicles to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathodes, which are cobalt- and nickel-free.
Market cap: US$71.19 billion; current share price: US$25.19
BYD is also the leading producer of multiple kinds of rechargeable batteries: nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion batteries and NCM batteries. BYD owns the complete supply chain layout, from mineral battery cells to battery packs.
Market cap: US$29.82 billion; current share price: US$29.76
One of the main differences between Li Auto and the other companies on this list is that Li Auto’s models allow battery pack charging with electricity or gas. Li Auto calls this design extended-range EV technology. By 2025, the company wants its lineup to include one flagship model, five extended-range electric models and five high-voltage pure electric models.
Market cap: US$14.63 billion; current share price: US$15.27
Founded in 2009, Rivian designs, develops and manufactures category-defining EVs and accessories and sells them directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets.
Market cap: US$11.97 billion; current share price: US$5.13
VinFast Auto, Vietnam’s first global automotive manufacturer, is a multinational EV manufacturer producing both affordable and luxury EVs. The company even has an electric pickup truck in the works, known as the VF Wild.
Market cap: US$8.94 billion; current share price: US$5.69
Founded in 2014, Chinese EV maker Nio designs, jointly manufactures and sells smart and connected premium EVs.
Nio’s strategy includes its battery-as-a-service endeavor, a subscription purchasing model where buyers lease vehicle batteries. The company says the idea behind this move is to reduce vehicle costs. The service is run by a battery asset company, with Nio and leading battery maker CATL owning a stake. CATL is already Nio’s sole battery supplier.
Market cap: US$7.75 billion; current share price: US$8.54
Another Chinese EV maker focused on the smart EV market, Xpeng’s main manufacturing plant is in Guangdong province.
Market cap: US$7.601 billion; current share price: US$3.32
Headquartered in California, Lucid was founded in 2007 and produces luxury electric cars. The company’s first car, Lucid Air, is a state-of-the-art luxury sedan that is being produced at its factory in Casa Grande, Arizona.
Market cap: US$3.67 billion; current share price: US$1.66
Now that it must compete in a tighter market, Polestar has joined the ranks of those EV makers offering discounted prices, including on the 2024 Polestar 2 rear-wheel and all-wheel-drive models.
Market cap: US$1.91 billion; current share price: US$6.69
Headquartered in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), NWTN is focused on providing solutions for green energy and transportation. The company’s smart EVs are integrated with internet of things connectivity, as well as artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology. NWTN is the first UAE-based EV company to be listed on the Nasdaq.
This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2020.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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