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Copper was trading on the COMEX at under US$4 per pound at the beginning of 2024, but by May 21, the red metal’s price had surged to a record high of US$5.11 per pound.
Price momentum at the start of the year was owed to several factors, including increasing demand from energy transition sectors, bottlenecks at Chinese refiners and near-zero copper treatment charges.
The price was volatile through the second and third quarters, slipping back below US$4 per pound before soaring above US$4.50 at the end of Q3. Read on for more on how copper performed in 2024, from prices to supply and demand.
Copper started the fourth quarter of the year on a strong note. On October 2, the metal reached its quarterly high of US$4.60 before starting a month-long slide to US$4.31 on October 31.
Volatility was the story at the start of November. Copper soared to US$4.45 on November 5 before dropping to US$4.22 on November 6, then spiked to US$4.41 on November 7; finally, it crashed to US$4.05 on November 15.
Copper price, Q4 2024.
While copper did see a couple of rallies as the year ended, it only briefly broke through resistance of US$4.20 from December 9 to 11 before settling toward the US$4 mark at the end of the month.
This tightness will continue to impact refiner treatment charges. Though they are expected to rebound to around US$20 to US$30 per metric ton (MT), they will still be short of the US$80 mark reached in 2023.
The situation has become more challenging as new operations, particularly in China, expand capacity in 2024. Fastmarkets anticipates no change in the situation in 2025, as new smelters are set to come online in China, Indonesia and India. The additional capacity will see more refiners fighting for the available supply.
The company said the reduction was due to challenges with labor availability and problems with autonomous systems in its new haul trucks at its Highland Valley mine in BC, Canada.
A significant headwind for copper at the end of 2024 has been the continued challenges posed by China’s faltering economy. Although the country has introduced stimulus measures, they have made little difference.
The most recent stimulus announcement came on December 24, when the Chinese government announced it would issue US$411 billion worth of special treasury bonds in 2025. This package would be the highest on record, and would represent an increase over the US$137 billion issued in the past year.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and any shift in the strength of the nation’s economy will have implications for the price trajectory of base metal.
Copper supply was in focus in Q1 as First Quantum provided an update on its Cobre Panama mine.
At the beginning of 2024, First Quantum pursued several avenues to resolve the issue and reopen the mine, including arbitration. It also waited for the results of Panama’s May election in hopes of more mining-friendly leadership.
The second quarter was dominated by news of output curtailments at Chinese smelting operations.
Speaking to the Investing News Network at the time, Joe Mazumdar, editor of Exploration Insights, said that 50 percent of the world’s smelting capacity is in China. For that reason, the end price is dictated by treatment and refining charges, which nearly turned negative due to the lack of available concentrate.
In turn, this pushed the price of copper prices higher at major exchanges.
“So there’s the cathode price. That’s stated in the LME, and Shanghai and the COMEX in the states. But if the market is tight in any of those regions locally, you will see a cathode premium … over the price of the copper,” he said. “People are willing to pay more to incentivize people that have copper inventory to release it into the market.”
Copper supply and demand both saw growth during Q3.
Output from the Democratic Republic of Congo increased 11 percent, while Indonesia’s production rose 22 percent.
At the same time, demand increased slightly by 2.5 percent. Much of the additional demand came from 2.7 percent growth in Asian markets, which includes a 0.5 percent increase in Chinese refined copper imports.
The copper market has been tight all year, with new demand accelerating beyond new mine supply.
This demand growth is expected to continue as the world transitions from fossil fuels to renewable technologies that require more copper, like wind and solar. However, copper demand is still constrained by weakness in the Chinese economy, particularly in its housing sector, which is an important driver of global demand for the metal.
Ultimately, in the longer term, copper supply will be lacking from new projects and expanded production to meet demand. The base metal is expected enter a supply deficit over the next few years.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Copper prices saw impressive gains in 2024, even breaking the US$5 per pound mark in May. However, the red metal’s gains didn’t last, and by the end of the year copper had retreated back to the US$4 range.
What will these factors mean for copper prices in the new year? Will they rise, or can investors expect the base metal to remain rangebound? Here’s a look at what experts see coming for the important commodity.
Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president on January 20.
When it comes to copper, Trump’s proposed changes to environmental regulations could have key implications. While the Biden administration has sought to toughen these rules, Trump will look to relax them.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie’s research director for copper, said changes to environmental regulations are likely to benefit the mining sector overall.
“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20 year moratorium on mining in Northern Minnesota. This pro-mining approach means more mines could be permitted and put into production,” she said.
The company has been exploring the Bristol Bay region since acquiring the property in 2001, but the US Army Corps of Engineers denied approval in 2020; the Environmental Protection Agency did the same in 2021.
As tensions continue to grow between the west and eastern nations like China and Russia, it may not take much to threaten markets for critical materials, including copper.
Trump has already promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China.
A tariff on copper imports could upend the president-elect’s plans for the resource sector. It would increase the prices of copper imports and disrupt the overall economy.
“The risk is that the president-elect’s threatened tariffs, including 60 percent on China and 20 percent on all other nations, could derail global economic growth, lead to higher inflation and, with that, tighten monetary policy and also lead to a change in trade flows. Copper will suffer if demand takes a hit,” Joannides said.
“In addition, there is likely to be continued volatility in prices,” she added.
China’s faltering economy has been a major headwind for copper over the past several years.
The country’s housing market accounts for roughly 30 percent of global demand for the red metal, meaning that any shifts could have significant implications for the copper market.
The sector has been struggling for the past few years as the country deals with economic issues, including fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions to supply chains and a spike in unemployment.
Other changes introduced at the time include more help from the People’s Bank of China, which will provide a lending facility for state-owned firms to acquire unsold flats for affordable housing.
While these measures may not be felt for some time, kickstarting the Asian nation’s real estate sector could be a boon for copper producers and investors.
“If the Chinese real estate market were to post a recovery, this would see domestic demand for copper tick higher and could lead to a tighter supply and demand balance overall, assuming all other things remain unchanged. This would underpin even higher prices than we are currently projecting,” said Joannides.
With copper demand projected to grow long term, supply-side concerns are rising. According to Joannides, there is already recognition that copper exploration has been underinvested over the past few years.
“We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries,” she explained to INN.
“Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda.”
Rising copper prices could also increase the flow of money from the major companies into the junior space, where most of the exploration is currently occurring.
“Copper has become the standout strategic preference for the major mining companies. The risk-adjusted cost of developing organic copper assets is higher than the cost of acquiring them,” Joannides said.
This kind of acquisition activity could help reduce the development time of assets compared to companies starting exploration from scratch.
While copper supply and demand conditions are expected to remain tight in 2025, competing forces are at play.
One of the biggest factors is Trump’s return to the White House. If the president-elect takes action as quickly as he has promised, investors could soon gain insight on the long-term implications of his policies.
In terms of China, it will take time to get the property sector back to where it was before the pandemic; however, there may be sparks early in the year as new measures start to work their way through the market.
During 2025 it may be even more prudent than usual for investors to do their due diligence on copper and keep an eye on the forces that may affect the market.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
Copper prices surged in 2024, breaking the US$5 per pound barrier for the first time.
Prices have since retreated, but have largely traded above US$4, as well as above the average 2023 price of US$3.83.
Copper demand remains high in energy transition sectors, but supply has been affected by bottlenecks at Chinese smelters, which cut production during the first half of the year due to low treatment charges.
Year-to-date gain: 189.29 percent
Market cap: C$259.05 million
Share price: C$1.62
Its most advanced asset is the Arctic copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver project.
The company has spent much of this year advancing roadwork to provide access to its projects, but has faced some headwinds while working with the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM).
Shares of Trilogy reached a year-to-date high of C$1.89 on November 22.
Year-to-date gain: 75.9 percent
Market cap: C$387.16 million
Share price: C$0.73
Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on the Pebble project, a copper-molybdenum-gold-silver project located 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska, US.
Northern Dynasty says the site is “one of the greatest stores of mineral wealth ever discovered.” It hosts a measured and indicated copper resource of 6.5 billion MT and an inferred copper resource of 4.5 billion MT. Measured and indicated resources for molybdenum, gold and silver total 1.26 million MT, 53.82 million ounces and 249.3 million ounces, respectively.
Earlier in 2024, the US Supreme Court declined to hear the matter on procedural grounds, sending it back to the federal district court and federal circuit of appeals before the Supreme Court would hear it.
Shares of Northern Dynasty reached a year-to-date high of C$0.76 on December 11.
Year-to-date gain: 74.45 percent
Market cap: C$2.64 billion
Share price: C$12.63
NGEx Minerals, part of the Lundin Group, is a copper and gold explorer focused on projects in Argentina and Chile. Its primary focus is the Los Helados and Lunahuasi (formerly Potro Cliffs) projects, both located within the Vicuña copper-gold district on the border of Argentina and Chile. The district is controlled by companies within the Lundin Group.
NGEx shares have traded alongside rising copper and precious metal prices throughout the year, but several events have also significantly supported movement for the company.
Year-to-date gain: 71.9 percent
Market cap: C$16.18 billion
Share price: C$18.60
First Quantum Minerals is a copper mining and development company with a global portfolio of assets.
The company also operates several mines in Zambia, including its Kansanshi copper-gold mine, Sentinel copper mine and Enterprise nickel mine. Earlier in the year, First Quantum warned that production might be impacted in 2024 due to severe drought conditions caused by El Nino, which has reduced water levels in the Kafue and Zambezi rivers. The government declared a national emergency in March, and power generation in the country has been impacted.
Both Kansanshi and Sentinel reported increased copper production during Q3. Kansanshi saw its highest levels since Q4 2021 with 49,810 MT, while Sentinel recorded copper production of 58,412 MT, an increase of 4,817 MT over Q2.
Shares of First Quantum reached a year-to-date high of C$20.70 on December 5.
Year-to-date gain: 68.46 percent
Market cap: C$4.86 billion
Share price: C$12.23
In Canada, Hudbay’s 75 percent owned Copper Mountain mine in BC produced 6,736 MT of copper, and its wholly owned Snow Lake operations in Manitoba achieved record results in the quarter.
The operation produced 3,398 MT of copper, a 29 percent increase over Q2, when wildfires in the region impacted production. Both mines also produce gold and silver, and Snow Lake also produces zinc.
In addition to its mining assets, the company is advancing its Copper World project in Arizona, US. In its report for the first quarter, the company indicates that it is continuing to work on getting final state permits for the site and expects to receive them sometime in 2024. When complete, Copper World is expected to have a 20 year life.
The company is also working on its Mason project in Nevada, US. Hudbay is developing Mason as a long-term future asset with a 27 year mine life. A resource estimate shows a measured and indicated resource of 2.22 billion MT at an average grade of 0.29 percent copper, and an inferred resource of 237 million MT averaging 0.24 percent copper.
Shares of Hudbay reached a year-to-date high of C$14.15 on May 20.
Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, own shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.
Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Copper supply and demand have tightened in recent years, creating price volatility.
In 2024, copper prices reached record levels, breaking through the US$5 per pound mark for the first time.
Copper is one of the most important metals for the emerging green economy. It is essential for transmitting electricity, and is needed to produce wind turbines, electric cars and a wide array of electronic devices.
Year-to-date gain: 317.78 percent
Market cap: C$66.49 million
Share price: C$0.94
Koryx Copper is focused on the advancement of copper exploration projects in Namibia and Zambia. Its flagship asset is the Haib copper-molybdenum project located in Southern Namibia near the border with South Africa.
The company is currently working toward releasing an enhanced PEA in mid-2025.
President and CEO Pierre Léveillé said the program shows the deposit can deliver grades of over 0.3 percent copper for substantial widths in the project area, as well as above-average grades in the outer limits of the deposit.
Shares of Koryx reached a year-to-date high of C$1.24 on September 24.
Year-to-date gain: 305.56 percent
Market cap: C$92.75 million
Share price: C$0.73
Explorer Hannan Metals is focused on advancing gold, silver and copper deposits in Latin America.
The San Martin project is a joint venture with the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), a Japanese government agency established in 2004 to secure stable resources and fuel supplies. Under the terms of the agreement, JOGMEC can earn up to a 75 percent stake in the project if all its funding goals are met.
The site is located northeast of Tarapoto, Peru, and hosts a copper and silver system with 120 kilometers of combined strike. The Tabalosos target has shown grades of 4.9 percent copper and 62 grams per MT (g/t) silver over 2 meters.
Hannan also wholly owns the Valiente project, which hosts a previously unknown porphyry and epithermal mineralized belt within a 140 kilometer by 50 kilometer area containing copper, gold, molybdenum and silver.
Hannan said the results continue to further the company’s understanding of the mineralization system, with gold-rich areas at higher elevations that transition into copper-rich areas at lower elevations.
Before drilling commences in the second quarter of 2025, the company said its next steps are to reapply for a certificate of non-existence of archaeological remains, which it expects before the end of 2024. It must also submit a permit application to initiate activities, which is expected in the first quarter of 2025.
Shares of Hannan reached a year-to-date high of C$0.87 on December 9.
Year-to-date gain: 227.78 percent
Market cap: C$301.89 million
Share price: C$0.295
Sandfire Resources America is a copper development company focused on its Black Butte copper project, which is located east of Helena, Montana, in the US. In 2021, a state district court revoked the company’s mine operating permit for Black Butte, halting construction activities for the underground mine.
Sandfire describes the property as one of the highest-grade undeveloped copper deposits in the world. According to a 2020 resource estimate, the project’s Johnny Lee deposit holds measured and indicated resources of 10.9 million MT grading 2.9 percent copper for a total of 311,000 MT of contained copper.
Shares of Sandfire reached a year-to-date high of C$0.395 on May 13.
Year-to-date gain: 203.57 percent
Market cap: C$36.89 million
Share price: C$0.425
Awalé Resources is a copper and gold explorer focused on its Odienné project in Côte D’Ivoire.
Awalé plans to complete a large IP survey in January 2025 on the entire BBM trend to help refine targets for a 7,000 meter reverse-circulation drill campaign set to begin in February.
Shares of Awalé reached a year-to-date high of C$0.98 on March 26.
Investor Kit
Year-to-date gain: 180 percent
Market cap: C$67.73 million
Share price: C$1.40
Lara Exploration is a copper miner, explorer and royalty generator focused on South America.
For 2024, its primary asset has been the Planalto copper project in the Carajas Mineral Province in Pará, Brazil. The property comprises five mineral tenements covering a total area of 3,867 hectares. More than 23,000 meters of drilling have been conducted, and three primary deposits — Homestead, Cupuzeiro and Planalto — have been identified.
Shares of Lara reached a year-to-date high of C$1.60 on October 24.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Awalé Resources is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
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