Rare earths prices saw some gains in May 2024, fueled by positive sentiment over consumer demand in China.
While both dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxides benefited from this positivity, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that Dy oxides registered the largest gain, moving 10 percent high month-on-month.
The move for Dy oxides was more pronounced as the market is smaller. NdPr oxide was up a more moderate 0.6 percent.
Muted demand has weighed on prices, but year-on-year increases in mine supply have also capped price growth.
Rare earths, which are essential in various high-tech applications, including electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines and electronics, have become a political pawn between the east and west.
Currently, China and the US are locked in a geopolitical struggle over rare earths, with tensions mounting.
The US responded with tariffs on Chinese EVs and critical minerals, aiming to counter China’s dominance while bolstering domestic production. These measures underscore escalating tensions, with both nations prioritizing strategic control over rare earths amid growing demand for green technologies and national security needs.
While each nation grapples for supply chain security, Jon Hykawy, president and director at Stormcrow Capital, told the Investing News Network (INN) that a more diplomatic approach is needed.
“There is a potential fork in the path regarding critical materials, more broadly, and rare earths, in particular, when it comes to overall trade strategy between western nations and China,” he said via email.
“By my calculations, if we maintain an integrated trade structure, then, together, we will probably be able to provide sufficient quantities of both NdPr and DyTb (dysprosium-terbium) to achieve our goals in both the automotive and clean energy sectors; NdPr is easy, DyTb is harder, but it can be done.”
However, if western nations decide they want to exclude China they will face shortfalls.
“If we decide to go our own way in the west, then we can likely deliver enough NdPr to do what we need to do. (But) we are unlikely to make enough DyTb to enable the intended use of all that NdPr,” he noted.
Hykawy also took aim at governments not recognizing the increasing importance of DyTb.
“At present, there is some noise and support for ‘rare earths,’ but no one in government seems to understand that the critical materials out of the lanthanide elements is shifting from NdPr to DyTb. Without that realization, the steps that are being taken are not mitigating the correct risks,” he said.
To combat China’s hold on the rare earths sector, the US is heavily investing in the space.
“The US has looked to support the development of a domestic rare earth supply chain by financing upstream development of rare earth mining from primary and secondary sources, along with recycling of rare earth containing products,” David Merriman, research director at Project Blue, explained to INN.
“In addition, the US government has provided financing for rare earth processing facilities under development by existing rare earth producers to be located in the US, along with NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) magnet production facilities.”
To bolster domestic magnet production against Chinese competition, the US government plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on NdFeB magnet imports from China starting in 2026.
However, since most NdFeB magnets are already embedded in components imported by US manufacturers, the tariff is expected to affect only a small fraction of the country’s overall NdFeB magnet consumption, Merriman said.
As the US looks to build out a domestic rare earths supply chain, China has sought to fortify its own.
“China has also taken action to reduce supply chain risk for rare earths, both at the sourcing of feedstocks and the downstream finished product stage,” he said. “China via state-owned companies has invested in several foreign rare earth operations to diversify the origin of rare earth feedstocks, particularly for heavy rare earth rich feeds.”
As Merriman pointed out, the diversification has been propelled by sourcing issues in 2024.
“The risk of China’s current feedstock sources has been highlighted in 2024 with disruption to feedstock supplies from Myanmar, which accounted for >40 percent of global mine supply of dysprosium and terbium,” he said.
The two towns in Kachin state, near China’s Yunnan province, are critical suppliers of rare earth oxides to China.
Depressed prices through 2023 have weighed on explorers and developers as new projects are financially unviable.
“There are several projects which are at advanced stages of development, though few are able to compete on a cost basis with fully integrated and state-owned operators in China,” said Merriman.
“Financing, metallurgical test work and the development of a sizable terminal market outside of China for semi-refined rare earth products are all barriers to the development of several rare earth projects.”
Weak markets are often fertile ground for M&A and deals, and 2024 saw some notable ones.
Since the agreement was penned, development activities at Donald have progressed, including work related to process plant engineering, auxiliary infrastructure, contract tendering and permitting and approvals.
Defense Metals and the SRC will explore collaborations on rare earth processing and supply, including using SRC’s proprietary separation technology for Defense Metals’ products. They aim to negotiate a long-term supply agreement as Defense Metals advances its Wicheeda rare earths project in BC, Canada.
In 2025, Merriman sees China’s continued rare earths dominance as a key driver for the sector.
“China maintains a strong influence over rare earth pricing, with most international prices for rare-earth trades being based in some way upon Chinese domestic pricing. China has long sought price stability for key rare earths, allowing downstream value add industries to benefit from reliable and often lower feedstock prices,” he said.
“Maintained lower pricing in 2025 will likely help support demand growth for key earth products within the Chinese market, though the concentration of supply originating from China continues to make rest-of-world consumers nervous over becoming reliant on rare earths materials,” Merriman also told INN.
For Hykawy, precarious supply outside of China and weak prices will be a focal point in 2025.
“Obviously, we’ve seen significant price drops for Nd, for example,” he said.
“That helps the auto sector, but only by the slightest amount. Let’s say there is 2 kilograms of magnet in a main motor in an EV, and I’m likely overestimating. Only 27 percent of that is neodymium metal. The impact of the price change on 500 grams of rare earth is not moving the needle on an EV’s cost,” Hykawy added.
He also expressed concern about the supply chain for heavy rare earths. “The bigger, long-term impact I am thinking about is, as Dy and Tb production becomes a bottleneck, how does the industry adjust to a world where the projects that can produce enough Dy and Tb are also making Nd and Pr as a by-product?” he posited.
“For some time, NdPr have been the materials in demand. Soon, they might be valuable but overproduced commodities, with everyone scrambling to get the right amount of DyTb for their automotive or wind application.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: Aclara Resources and Energy Fuels are clients of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.
The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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