Will First Majestic Silver CEO’s silver price prediction of more than US$100 per ounce come true?
The silver price made waves in 2020 when it rose above US$20 per ounce for the first time in four years, and the precious metal has repeatedly tested US$30 per ounce since.
Most recently, the silver price broke through the US$30 mark on May 17 and went on reach a nearly 12-year high of US$31.80 in the next trading session. On May 19, the silver price hit US$32.33 per ounce, which remains its highest point as of May 21.
At times he’s been even bolder, suggesting in 2016 that the white metal could reach US$1,000 if gold were to hit US$10,000. More recently, his expected timeline for US$100 silver has been pushed back, but he remains very bullish on the metal in the long term.
In order to better understand where Neumeyer’s opinion comes from and whether a triple-digit silver price is really in the cards, it’s important to take a look at the factors that affect the metal’s movements, as well as where prices have been in the past and where other industry insiders think silver could be headed. First, let’s dive a little deeper into Neumeyer’s US$100 prediction.
There’s a significant distance for silver to go before it reaches the success Neumeyer has boldly predicted. In fact, in order for the precious metal to jump to the US$100 mark, its price would have to increase from its current value by around 350 percent.
Neumeyer has previously stated that he expects a triple-digit silver price in part because he believed the market cycle could be compared to the year 2000, when investors were sailing high on the dot-com bubble and the mining sector was down. He thinks it’s only a matter of time before the market corrects, like it did in 2001 and 2002, and commodities see a big rebound in pricing. It was during 2000 that Neumeyer himself invested heavily in mining stocks and came out on top.
In his August 2022 with Wall Street Silver, he reiterated his support for triple-digit silver and said he’s fortunately not alone in this optimistic view — in fact, he’s been surpassed in that optimism. “I actually saw someone the other day call for US$500 silver,” he said. “I’m not quite sure I’m at the level. Give me US$50 first and we’ll see what happens after that.”
He pointed out that subtracting net investments in silver exchange-traded products leaves the market in a deficit, and also questioned the methodology behind the institute’s recycling data given that most recycled silver metal comes from privately owned smelters and refineries that typically don’t make those figures public.
“It could be Elon Musk taking a position in the silver space,” Neumeyer said. “There’s going to be a catalyst at some time, and headlines in the Wall Street Journal might talk about the silver supply deficit … I don’t know what the catalyst will be, but investors and institutions will wake up to the fundamentals of the metal, and that’s when it will start to move.”
“If you want to go and buy 100 billion ounces of silver (in the paper market), you might not even move the price because some bank just writes you a contract that says (you own that),” he explained, saying banks are willing to get short, because once the buying stops, they push the price down to get the investors out of the market and buy the silver back. “… If the miners started pulling their metal out of the current system, then all of a sudden the banks wouldn’t know if they’re going to get the metal or not, so they wouldn’t be taking the same risks they’re taking today in the paper markets.”
In order to glean a better understanding of the precious metal’s chances of trading around the US$100 range, it’s important to examine the elements that could push it to that level or pull it further away.
The strength of the US dollar and US Federal Reserve interest rate changes are factors that will continue to affect the precious metal, as are geopolitical issues and supply and demand dynamics. Although Neumeyer believes that the ties that bind silver to gold need to be broken, the reality is that most of the same factors that shape the price of gold also move silver.
For that reason, it’s helpful to look at gold price drivers when trying to understand silver’s price action. Silver is, of course, the more volatile of the two precious metals, but nevertheless it often trades in relative tandem with gold.
Looking first at the Fed and interest rates, it’s useful to understand that higher rates are generally negative for gold and silver, while lower rates tend to be positive. That’s because when rates are higher interest shifts to products that can accrue interest.
On a separate note, silver’s close ties to gold’s safe-haven status should be beneficial in the long term, and there is also a strong case to made for the metal’s industrial potential. Higher industrial demand from emerging sectors due to factors like the transition to renewable energy will be highly supportive for the metal over the next few years.
Many are on board with Neumeyer in the idea that silver’s prospects are bright, including Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor, who believes that “we are very likely going to experience the greatest silver bull market of our generation.”
So, if the silver price does rise further, how high will it go?
Strong demand from India’s solar panel sector is another factor, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. “(T)he analysts noted that India imported more of the gray metal in Q1 2024 than in all of 2023, and they see Indian demand as a major contributor to price appreciation for the rest of the year,” reported Kitco’s Ernest Hoffman.
Many experts in the space expect silver to perform strongly in the years to come, but don’t necessarily see it reaching US$100 or more, especially given the current macroeconomic conditions.
“As I was doing my research, and this goes back over several years already, I would get to that US$300 forecast for an ultimate high in the silver price in different ways,” he said, and broke down what a low gold/silver ratio — like we’ve seen the previous times that silver has peaked — could mean for the metal’s price in the future.
“One of the most significant (events) for me was when we saw almost the entire US Treasury yield curve peak above 5 percent in mid-October,” he said. “Since then, we’ve had the US Dollar Index peak at 107. Both of these have fallen considerably since, I believe in the market’s view that the Fed has stopped hiking rates, with the expectation that rate cuts will come sometime in 2024.”
The silver price has finally broken through the long anticipated US$30 mark, a catalyst experts have discussed heavily in recent years.
“Once silver gets above US$33 and it stays there for three or four days — or better yet, even two or three weeks — there’s not much holding it back to hit US$50 again,” he said at the time.
Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, is another analyst who was confident silver had the potential to break the US$30 per ounce level and move higher in 2024.
The primary reason that silver is sold at a significant discount to gold is supply and demand, with more silver being mined annually.
While silver does have both investment and industrial demand, the global focus on gold as an investment vehicle, including countries stockpiling gold, can overshadow silver. Additionally, jewelry alone is a massive force for gold demand.
Another factor that lends more intrinsic value to silver is that it’s an industrial metal as well as a precious metal. It has applications in technology and batteries — both growing sectors that will drive demand higher.
In 2016, Neumeyer predicted that silver could hit $1,000 per ounce if gold ever climbed to US$10,000 per ounce. This is related to the gold to silver production ratio discussed above, which at the time of the prediction was around 1 ounce of gold to 9 ounces of silver and last year was about 1:8.3.
If silver was priced according to production ratio today, when gold is at US$2,000 silver would be around US$240, or US$222 at 1:9. However, the gold to silver pricing ratio has actually sat around 1:80 to 1:90 recently, and when gold moved above US$2,000 in May 2023, silver was around US$25. Additionally, even if pricing did change drastically to reflect production rates, gold would need to climb around 500 percent from its current price to hit the US$10,000 Neumeyer mentioned back in 2016.
As things are now, it seems unlikely silver will reach those highs.
There are merits for both metals, especially as part of a well-balanced portfolio. As many analysts point out, silver has been known to outperform its sister metal gold during times of economic prosperity and expansion.
On the other hand, during economic uncertainty silver values are impacted by declines in fabrication demand.
This is an updated version of an article originally published by the Investing News Network in 2016.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
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